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China has sent its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are administered by Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from the Japanese official.

Taiwan's Position

China claims Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, seeming to travel unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but uncommon, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Pressure

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first occasion since 2023, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it did not elaborate.

Multiple carriers from China said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a detrimental effect on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the largest demographic.

Official Commentary

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.